Baseball is so goofy.

One can reasonably project a team’s record based upon the team’s runs scored and runs allowed. Bill James ran the numbers decades ago and called it the Pythogorean Theorem: RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2) ~= Winning Percentage. The chaps over at Baseball Prospectus have taken it a bit further, using their Equivalent Runs statistics to figure out what you would expect a team to score and give up, given their performance to date, and figured out which teams are outperforming or underachieving: BP Adjusted Standings.

My beloved Reds are, by expectation, the worst team in the NL Central. They reside in 2nd place in the real world standings. That is, to use a term of Heather’s, a flaming metric asston of luck.

I started looking at this earlier when I realized that Rick’s Dodgers—yes, I found out long after becoming good friends with him that he’s a fan of the Damn Bums, and yes, I wept—are in first place. FIRST PLACE DODGERS?! WTF?!

They deserve to be there, too.


[All standings data current as of the time of posting. If you look at this in the future and feel led to comment that the data is incorrect, well, look in the mirror to find the moron.]

1 comment

  1. I wouldn’t really claim the Dodgers all tha tmuch anymore. I can’t say that I know many (if really any) of their players anymore. I started off back in the day as a Mets fan (yes, I was young) and there was just something about Stawberry and his wild leg reaise leading into the swing. One thing leads to another and he’s off to LA, so I follow along. Darryl falls by the wayside, but about that time the likes of Piazza, Karros, Mondesi, Nomo, et al started to come through the organization and I chose to stay with them.

    Now I’m just a die hard football fan who only occasionally takes the time to check the standings. So I’d have to say that I’m not much of a fan anymore.

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